How should you compare retirement scenarios?
Retirement planners can produce many numbers, but a larger balance, lower tax estimate, or higher success rate does not automatically identify the best strategy. A fair comparison keeps assumptions consistent and evaluates whether each strategy supports the goals that matter to the user.
Reviewed August 2, 2026 · Educational information, not individualized advice
First, know which kind of “scenario” you are viewing
Loads example ages, accounts, spending, Social Security, allocation, and assumptions for learning.
Combines a Social Security claim age with No Roth, Fixed, or an applied Optimized conversion policy.
Controls how returns and inflation are produced for every strategy in the comparison.
Retirement Risk Analysis adds many simulated futures under the selected assumptions. Those futures are tests applied to each strategy; they are not additional Social Security or Roth strategy rows.
Use the Scenario Summary for strategy comparisons
Each summary row represents the same starting household under a different Social Security and Roth policy. Compare rows only after confirming that the underlying spending, account balances, allocation, tax filing information, horizon ages, and economic assumptions are the same.
Scenario Highlights call attention to notable results such as a high horizon balance, high ending balance, long funding period, or Social Security amount. A highlight is a starting point for investigation—not an automatic recommendation. Selecting a card should lead to its summary row and year-by-year details.
Start with spending coverage, not ending balance
A strategy can finish with a larger portfolio while producing a spending shortfall earlier, particularly if account restrictions, taxes, or conversion timing prevent money from being used when needed. Confirm that planned spending remains covered through the primary horizon and ending age before treating a larger ending balance as better.
In deterministic results, review depletion age and year-by-year unfunded need. In Risk Analysis, compare modeled spending-coverage rates through the same ages and inspect the typical shortfall age and amount for paths that fail.
Compare balances using the same age and dollar basis
Primary horizon versus ending age
The horizon age answers a central planning question, such as the projected position at age 80. The ending age tests a longer lifetime, such as age 95. A strategy can lead at one age and trail at another.
Future versus inflation-adjusted dollars
Future Dollars are the number of dollars projected in that future year. Inflation-Adjusted Dollars express the same value in first-projection-year purchasing power. Do not compare one planner's future dollars with another planner's today's dollars.
Pretax versus after-tax value
A Traditional IRA dollar may be taxable when withdrawn, while qualified Roth withdrawals generally are not. The visible total portfolio is not automatically an after-tax liquidation value. This distinction matters when a conversion strategy changes where the money is held.
Why lower taxes may not change depletion age
Depletion age is a coarse whole-year result. Two strategies can reach zero in the same year while holding substantially different balances in preceding years. Tax savings may also remain in an account that cannot fully offset conversion taxes, earlier withdrawals, lost growth, or spending needs.
Review horizon balances, ending balances, total unfunded spending, and the year-by-year cash flow before concluding that a tax reduction had no value—or that the lower-tax strategy was necessarily stronger.
Understand the economic method behind the result
- Deterministic: applies one smooth annual return and is useful for clear strategy comparisons.
- Single Simulated Path: shows one reproducible sequence but does not measure probability.
- Historical Sequence: replays consecutive documented years as a stress test.
- Historical Bootstrap: builds a path by sampling contiguous historical blocks.
- Risk Analysis: evaluates all active strategies across the same many generated paths.
Smooth deterministic results and cautious simulated results answer different questions. Use deterministic projections to understand the mechanics, then use Risk Analysis to examine sensitivity to timing and uncertainty.
A repeatable comparison checklist
- Confirm the same starting accounts, spending, income, inflation, allocation, and tax settings.
- Choose the decision being tested: claiming age, Roth policy, spending, or allocation.
- Compare spending coverage through the same horizon and ending ages.
- Compare balances using the same future or inflation-adjusted dollar basis.
- Review taxes and Medicare costs without allowing either to become the only objective.
- Inspect year-by-year withdrawals, conversions, RMDs, and unfunded needs.
- Run Risk Analysis for the finalists using identical generated paths.
- Change one important assumption and see whether the preferred strategy remains acceptable.
Related guides
Compare strategies with one consistent set of assumptions
Start with your own inputs or a sample household, compare the summary rows, inspect annual details, and test the strongest candidates across uncertain futures.
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